Many of Chicagos projections are notably south of where they were in 2022, and there are still at least two fairly serious holes in the starting lineup that the team better be more serious about filling this year. Bryce Harpers return from elbow surgery is, of course, one of the real X factors thats hard to fully consider here. Every time I projected the Mariners this winter, they showed incremental improvement. There are a lot of Reds who ZiPS sees as having significant upside (Elly De La Cruz, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Noelvi Marte), but the system doesnt see 2023 being their breakout campaigns. Renfroe is actually helpful for an organization that has proven bad at surrounding its stars with secondary talent, but theres a lot to do if the Angels are going to even maintain this place in the standings. I dont know exactly what that profile looks like, but Im sure the Rockies analytics department is up to the task (pause for laughter). Create an account to follow your favorite communities and start taking part in conversations. You could make an argument for any of these four teams to sit atop these rankings, though, and thats why theyre presented in tiers rather than a straight numerical order. Skiing in the Rockies sucks this time of year, Fangraphs' Newly Updated International Prospect Rankings, FanGraphs projects struggles for Giants in 2022 season. The Guardians and Royals are both teams with limited short-term upside after low-key offseasons. Cleveland is fairly unscathed, with the drop-off in wins reflecting a drop-off in the overall projections for the roster. The Padres would love to put the summer of 2021 behind them, but they just cant escape the bad vibes that saw them win just 18 games during the last two months of the season. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Below are the projections for the Atlanta Braves. Read the rest of this entry . If those additions can elevate the production of their pitching staff, and Trout, Ohtani, and Anthony Rendon can stay healthy, the Angels could have a shot at toppling the Astros in the AL West. Uras projects to essentially repeat his 2021 season. The irony in that is, I could make an argument this team has more current question marks than last years team at this point with an unsettled outfield, an unsettled rotation, Ronald Acuna Jr coming off a major injury, same with Charlie Morton, etc. OK, not really. Location: Karta. Now, imagine a scenario in which Acua isnt quite ready, Ozuna is struggling, and the Braves have to field a designated hitter in addition to cobbling together whatever at first. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Olson, Chapman, Bassitt, and Manaea were all traded away this spring, and Frankie Montas will likely be sent to the highest bidder during the season. Should the Orioles trade Mountcastle for a good starter? Correa is a serious loss for the Astros, but they still project as the most complete team in the division. Crochets elbow injury, meanwhile, wouldnt have been as big a blow to the teams depth if it hadnt come immediately after the White Sox traded away Craig Kimbrel. Bringing in Nelson Cruz to be a veteran mentor was a nice touch, and Stephen Strasburg could potentially return from his Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery mid-season. We also get one of my favorite spring time treasures Projection systems releasing their standings and playoff predictions for the season. Theyll have their work cut out for them in a stacked AL East, especially after missing out on the playoffs by one game last year, but their combination of young star power and big-name offseason acquisitions should get them over the hump and back into the postseason in 2022. If I were a Rockies fan, Id have voted to legalize psychedelic mushrooms, too. The projections havent figured out how to handle the Rays brand of excessively deep roster construction. Just need to make it a full 6. Currently viewing seasons between 2022 and 2022 We need your support to make FanGraphs sustainable so you can continue to enjoy all of the stats and tools you've come to rely on, like The. Interestingly, projected for the 8th best record and 4th best (tied) run differential. ATC: ATC Projections courtesy of Ariel Cohen. 2022 ZiPS Projections: Atlanta Braves. Loosely, money spent outside of planned raises and inexpensive (think 2yrs, $13M or 1yr, $4.5M) roster hole plugging that every team does. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski. Completely bonkers if the payroll stays there, but since it ranged from $136M-$157M from 2017-2019 Id say its a safe bet to increase. He was the biggest addition to their club, but they also traded for Sonny Gray, Gary Snchez, and Gio Urshela, and made a last minute move for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagn. Too many high impact FAs on the board. San Diego retained Nick Martinez and Robert Suarez, and having a full season of Juan Soto and (hopefully) most of a year of Fernando Tatis Jr. is quite the boost. The Dodgers have a lot of work to do this offseason, but they started off as an absurdly good team, leaving them at the top of the projected division. His ATC Projections were ranked as the #1 most accurate projection system over the past three years (2019-2021). I feel 81 wins is a pretty reasonable expectation for them. Much like FanGraphs, PECOTA really likes the Braves in 2022, which hasn't always been the case. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. In five years, he could be their Carlos Correa. Read the rest of this entry . PECOTA, FanGraphs Projections MLB News Written By Staff on March 29, 2022 After the lockout, Major League Baseball's opening day is now April 7. So we project probabilities, not certainties. Sign up for the All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. 2022 Year to Date: 2022 Projected Rest of Season: Dansby Swanson is a big loss, but when you see the projection for Vaughn Grissom, youll understand why the Braves dominate this very preliminary run of the NL East standings. The Marlins are in a similar position as they were last year, with a highly interesting young pitching staff and an absolutely atrocious offense that they cant even commit weekend dad levels of attention to fixing. No team spent more during the offseason than the Rangers a fascinating turn after the club lost 102 games in 2021. The projections actually see the Pirates having a halfway decent offense and Endy Rodriguez has a terrific projection but the rotation still projects rather poorly, as ZiPS remains frightened of Mitch Kellers plate discipline data. Dont worry, they still have between $0M and $10M in payroll space and 1 top-100 prospect, plus a couple others in the 100-200 range that could be traded to help the roster. Any trades would be to move Rosario or one of Plesac/Civale. The Braves have short-term and long-terms questions in their rotation that are still waiting to be answered. Now, the late-80s Braves eventually became the 90s Braves, something the Rangers are no doubt striving for, but getting from Point A to Point B isnt a route you can just put into your cars navigation system. Probably the most surprising team in these standings is the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have a cornucopia of players that ZiPS just really likes (Corbin Carroll, Brandon Pfaadt, Drey Jameson, and Ryne Nelson in particular). 2023 Pre-Season Projections ZiPS . Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Depth Charts: FanGraphs Depth Chart projections are a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections with playing time allocated by our staff. So how does it work? You can see how all the talent on their roster could come together to form a contender, but the specter of their late-season collapse looms large. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. These rankings, though, are entirely data driven. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts. The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is live. Their problem is that none of Kansas Citys young pitchers have stepped up to contribute in a big way yet. Terms at draftkings.com/sportsbook. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. For just this run of rankings, Ive used the projected fielding component of WAR that appears on our Depth Charts projections. It arrived stressfully, chaotically, and slightly late, but the 2022 season is here. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. FanGraphs simulates each season 10,000 times to generate the probabilities. But this is also the Mets were talking about; anything that could go wrong probably will. With their rebuilding phase quickly coming to an end, they traded for Jesse Winker, Eugenio Surez, and Adam Frazier, and signed Ray to a long-term contract. They play half their games in Coors Field and Coors Field is weird, it makes sense to get hitters and pitchers that are adapted to the situation there (just as it makes sense for the Yankees to sign guys who take advantage of the short porch in right, etc.). Or at least make the last two not an absolute dumpster fire. The exercise continues this offseason. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Note that this is NOT the actual 2022-2023 college basketball AP Poll - it's our prediction and projection of what it might be before it's released. They project the Braves, or at least the current version of the Braves, to a post a 91-71 record, winning the division by one game over the New York Mets. That Bobby Witt Jr. projects well is not a surprise, but Nick Pratto, MJ Melendez, and Vinnie Pasquantino all crushed the feckless assortment of minor league pitchers they faced, and you have to feel much better about the long-term outlook of all three in the majors. I dont think that theyll ever solve the hangover effect in the sense of substantially reducing the gap. AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, (select parishes), MD, MI, NH, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY, CA-ONT only.Eligibility restrictions apply. Luke Voit was a nice pickup from the Yankees, and a last-minute trade for Sean Manaea solidified their rotation. The exercise continues this offseason. Of note is that higher-percentile projections already have more playing time than lower-percentile projections before this step. bigbicepturner Wil Myers 1 yr. ago Fool me twice Can't fool me again edit: damnit, I screwed it up. That move alters the direction of the organization considerably. With three World Series appearances over the last five seasons and just one championship to show for it, you could view their recent dynasty as having some unfinished business despite its excellence. Now, hes the big loss, but Jameson Taillon and Matt Carpenter matter, too, though it isnt likely that Carpenter will match his 2022 performance anyway. Speaking of the Red Sox, Im not a fan of how much playing time theyre likely to give to Jackie Bradley Jr., but the Story signing, with the resulting shuffle of Enrique Hernndez to center field, resolved at least one of their outfield issues. That doesnt mean we should bank on it; Oakland has lost a lot of people who are really good at playing baseball. ZiPS underperformed its usual matchup vs. Vegas, only going 17-13 in over/unders as of the date of release (April 6); historically, ZiPS has averaged 19-11. Yesterday, we looked at the National League; today, we check out the Junior Circuit. With Joey Votto, reigning NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India, Luis Castillo, and Tyler Mahle still on the roster, Cincinnati has some talent left, but it was a very confusing process to get to this point. The Cardinals probably have the best shot at toppling the Brewers atop the NL Central, but their case took a blow when Jack Flaherty and Alex Reyes went down with shoulder woes. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski. Yikes. If the ChiSox are truly limited to $10M max (seriously? The Angels have the benefit here of having most of the teams performance tied up in just a few players, with nobody crucial headed to free agency. Then theres the bad news: Kansas Citys offense has several very interesting offensive players in the high minors. Its insane. Today was that glorious day for two of the biggest sites in the baseball universe, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. Its not just their new additions either. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors Cardinals fans will have plenty to celebrate whether or not the team makes the playoffs; Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols have already announced that 2022 will be their last year in the majors, and Wainwright has heavily hinted at joining them in retirement after the season. Another large difference in playoff odds can be seen with the New York Yankees. JAWS and the 2023 Hall of Fame Ballot: Mike Napoli. Over the past few years, ATC has consistently been one of the most accurate baseball forecasting models. Semien is a few years older, but after rightfully being a big part of the American League MVP race in two of the last three seasons, he starts off on a pretty high pedestal. Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch, and Kris Bubic, who collectively comprise the Royals highly regarded first-round haul from 2018, have all made their major league debuts to varying degrees of disappointment. I do think they ought to be in the market for a first base upgrade, keeping Jake Cronenworth at second and allowing Ha-Seong Kims eventual role be determined by what the Friars do with Tatis. This starts with bullishness on the Matts. If you were looking for ZiPS to provide some clarity, I hope you havent been waiting with bated breath too long! ZiPS projects McNeil's 2023 BABIP to be .316, in line with his career average of .314, accounting for much of the batting average drop. The rebellious part of me wanted to pick Steven Kwan as my staff pick for Rookie of the Year, but with Julio Rodrguez and Torkelson both going north with their teams, that would have been a stretch. But many of the players who fell flat on their face in 2022 . For the second straight year, weve also run the same process using the Average Total Cost (ATC) Projections as our base. Regardless, there might finally be some glimmers of hope on the horizon. Over the last decade, ZiPS has averaged 19.9 correct teams when looking at Vegas preseason over/under lines. Too many wins for the Dodgers and too few for the Giants. I guess this explains why theyve spent no money this offseason. ZiPS then generates a million versions of each team in Monte Carlo fashion the computational algorithms, that is (no one is dressing up in a tuxedo and playing baccarat like James Bond). Every time I projected the Mariners this winter, they showed incremental improvement. 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings AL Central, 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings NL Central. The team has a credible backup at most positions and even some upper minors depth (Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and, if you believe Steamer rather than ZiPS, Khalil Lee) they can use if the need arises. Their lineup is plenty strong, though, with Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker forming a powerful quartet. They also need to figure out how to solve the Coors Field hangover effect; over the last five seasons the Rockies have won 55.4% of their games at home and just 43.2% of their games on the road. Some may think. Theyll get Ronald Acua Jr. and Mike Soroka back from their respective injuries sometime during the season; Marcell Ozuna will return to the roster as well. Even if they are good this year, thats still the lesson. Would half their analysis department possess Ph.D.s in physics? After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Outbidding Minnesota for Correa (or signing Trevor Story) would have been a more elegant and probably superior solution to the the Josh Donaldson trade, without adding significant money to the payroll. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!! They also traded for Matt Chapman, giving them a huge boost to their infield defense. Also gotta remember that the rest of the Central teams (especially Twins) have payroll space and prospect capital to improve if they want to, and the Sox dont. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. I would be surprised if the best middle infield came from a team other than these three. With Spencer Torkelson on the Opening Day roster and Riley Greene close behind him (once he heals from his spring foot injury), Detroit has loudly declared its intention to compete sooner rather than later. The first part is Juan Soto, who got Ted Williams as his top offensive comp. 2023 projected standings for major league baseball teams. Combined with other changes in the playing time assumptions, Boston basically catches up to the division. The exercise continues this offseason. The Marlins find themselves on even footing with the teams in this tier behind the strength of their exciting pitching staff. It wasn't even some fluke of shift-related positioning; only four of those 10 bunts came with three. Lets start with the good news first: Kansas Citys offense has several very interesting offensive players in the high minors. Read the rest of this entry . ZiPS sees the Twins rotation as increasingly deep, but without any huge upside, and Carlos Correa will almost certainly be in another teams uniform come Opening Day. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please. But the same question that has hung over their recent run of success remains for this squad: will they score enough runs to support their excellent pitching staff? Lynn will be back soon enough, but his injury exposes how thin Chicagos rotation is, especially if another injury strikes. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Depth Charts: FanGraphs Depth Chart projections are a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections with playing time allocated by our staff. The White Sox remain the best team in the AL Central, and adding AJ Pollock balances out losing Craig Kimbrel (traded for Pollock) and Garrett Crochet (impending Tommy John surgery). Below are the projections for the New York Mets. And do note that the numbers coming out of cleveland are above and beyond raises and extensions. Entrance fee: 25 Lei. It would be moderately stunning if they spent money of any significance. So when I see them drop on my timeline sometime around mid-March every year, its an instant click of me. The premium ad-free membership. The talent was evident, but ownership was clearly reluctant to spend any additional money or prospect capital to supplement the core again. The exercise continues this offseason. * 21+ (19+ CA-ONT) (18+ NH/WY). A daily roundup of Atlanta Braves news from Battery Power, By submitting your email, you agree to our, FanGraphs and PECOTA projected standings for the 2022 season are here, Adam Duvall headed to the Red Sox on a one-year deal. Trading for Randal Grichuk to do the same is a little less cool but still fun. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Read the rest of this entry . The Rays are another possible answer, though. As you might logically suspect, ZiPS systematically underestimates teams that add value during the season and overrates teams that subtract value. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. After a prolonged offseason rife with drama and surprises, Opening Day is finally upon us. ZiPS was talking about 1980s minor league outfielder Ted Williams. Sotos plate discipline is other-worldly. No fucking way they are that low next year. The Cubs are making noise about spending this winter, but they need a couple of starting pitchers, a first baseman, most of a bullpen, and a DH to really threaten the top two teams in the Central. Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Ariel is also the winner of the 2020 FSWA Baseball Article of the Year award. Entering the 2022 NFL season, he is 427-344 all-time on NFL sides (plus $3,764 for $100 players), including 394-330 against the spread. They also forecast a drop from 5.9 fWAR in 2022 to 3.3 in 2023. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. What I do see them doing in FA is what Francona loves: platoons at 1B, Dh, and CF. With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. Im always tinkering with methodology, but most of the low-hanging fruit of predicting how teams do have already been harvested. So how does ZiPS calculate the upcoming season? Its very likely they'll add at least one outfielder and one starting pitcher to the roster, which could move these numbers even more in Atlantas favor. ZiPS then automatically fills in playing time from the next players on the list (proportionally) to get to a full slate of plate appearances and innings. But the lineup imploded. Tampa Bay won 100 games last year, and the bulk of that same roster returns in 2022. So under the current format, they make it in as the first wildcard and have to face * checks notes * Jacob DeGrom or Corbin Burnes in a 1 game playoff. Here's how PECOTA sees the 2022 season: This is just the NL East of course, you can view the full projections here. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Maybe Zack Greinke being back in Royal blue for 2022 will help them find another level. In his best season, Joey Votto was still nearly a quarter more likely to swing at an out-of-the-zone pitch than Soto was as a 22-year-old in 2021. 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